SSA Blog: It's coming home
Good news for England football fans dreaming of being in the stadium to witness ‘football coming home’. After recent success with a raft of pilot schemes, the UK Government has announced an increase in the number of fans able to attend Euro 2020 matches at Wembley. The increase means the home of English football will, from the knockout stages onward, allow attendances of up to 45,000 fans, equal to 50% of capacity. Furthermore, If England is successful in reaching the semi-final and final, they could play in front of 60,000 fans.
England Manager Gareth Southgate celebrates during World Cup 2018
The COVID 19 rules regarding fan attendance limited the final few games of the 2020/2021 Premier League season to either 25% capacity of the stadium or 10,000 people, whichever was smaller. That increased to 25% of capacity for the group stages of the European Championships. The increase to 50% capacity during the knockout phase now brings Wemberly into line with other European host cities such as Saint Petersburg and Baku. The boost to 75% capacity for the final two games marks a huge step forwards for the tournament and those fans desperate to see their heroes at the home of football.
Originally the multi-country, multi-city tournament format offered a number of teams the opportunity to play in front of home support. Much was made of the potential performance lift for teams such as England, who are due to play their group matches at Wembley, with the incentive of semi-finals and finals also hosted at the country's national stadium.
Looking back at results from previous tournaments, it does seem host nations benefit from playing at home. Of the previous 10 UEFA European Championship tournaments, 8 host nations have reached at least the semi-finals. While lifting some restrictions and allowing a limited number of fans to attend matches is a welcome sight, are there going to be enough to help produce a home advantage for those teams playing in their own countries?
A wide-ranging study examining 23 professional leagues during the 2019/2020 season, backed previous research examining the importance of a crowd. The findings concluded that it is not the psychological impact on players, but the referees who are most influenced by crowds. This was offered as a potential, measurable explanation for home advantage (Bryson et al 2020).
A deeper analysis of the data from an earlier study by Goumas’ 2014 also shows that a relationship exists between crowd density (dividing crowd size by stadium capacity) and the unconscious bias of referees. When stadia were at less than 25% capacity, no bias was detected. As crowd density increased to 50% and then up towards 100% capacity, away team bookings increased by 13% and 35% respectively.
At the elite level of the game, it might only take a few minor decisions going in favour of the home team to have a material impact on the outcome. If away team players have received, or feel they are more likely to receive, a booking it could temper their play and produce decreased effort in certain situations, allowing their opposition to capitalise on these opportunities.
Perhaps the UK Government is aware of this research and has moved to increase crowd capacity just in time to help the Three Lions. The authorities in Hungary are clearly doing all they can to help their team as matches in Budapest are allowing 100% stadium capacity.
It is often said, once the players have crossed the white line, there isn’t much more anyone else can do. For fans inside the ground, this isn’t true. They can be the difference, providing a real performance advantage and in elite sport, you take every advantage you can get. The data suggests the increase in stadium capacity from 25% to 50% could influence performance on the pitch. Let’s hope, as Euro 2020 progresses, more and more grounds are able to open up and create an atmosphere capable of benefiting the home team. For England, with the potential of playing the semi-finals and finals at Wembley, if the fan attendance can be at least 50%, it could just be the performance push needed to help football come home...
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