SSA Blog: The fans are back
With the ending of the UK’s month-long autumn COVID-19 national lockdown, the government has moved to continue its tentative steps back towards normality by allowing crowds to return to sporting fixtures. Inevitably, the focus has fallen on football with clubs in tiers 1 and 2 areas allowed to welcome 4,000 and 2,000 fans respectively.
Charlton Athletic fans socially distanced at fan attendance test games earlier in 2020
Much was made of the impact that empty stadia would have on players, with numerous theories presented to explain the potential for both improved and deteriorated performances. These ranged from benefits due to reduced pressure from the removal of an expectant crowd to an inability to find that ‘edge’ associated with the atmosphere players were used to.
A wide-ranging study looking at 23 professional leagues across 17 countries during the behind closed doors 2019/2020 season, backed previous research examining the importance of a crowd. The findings concluded that it is not the psychological impact on players, but the referees who are most influenced by crowds (Bryson et al 2020).
A deeper analysis of the data from an earlier study by Goumas’ 2014 also shows that a relationship exists between crowd density (dividing crowd size by stadium capacity) and the unconscious bias of referees. When stadia were at less than 25% capacity, no bias was detected but as crowd density increased to 50% and then up towards 100% capacity away team bookings increased by 13% and 35% respectively.
At the elite level of the game, it might only take a few minor decisions going in favour of the home team to have a material impact on the outcome. If away team players have received, or feel they are more likely to receive, a booking it could temper their play and produce decreased effort in certain situations, allowing their opposition to capitalise on these opportunities.
For many of the Premier League and Championship clubs, crowds of up to 4,000 will not constitute anything like the sort of density needed to have a positive performance impact as predicted by the Goumas study. Anfield, the home of current Premier League Champions Liverpool FC, for example, would only be 7.5% full if 4,000 fans were inside. At lower levels however, crowds of up to 4,000 could become increasingly significant in terms of performance. Sky Bet League Two Salford City and Forest Green Rovers, if allowed to welcome 4,000 fans would see their grounds nearing capacity.
Many lower league football clubs rely on their fan base to drive revenue via ticket sales and in-stadia purchases such as food and drinks. Trying to maximise the number of fans inside the grounds has always been a priority for clubs, but often from a financial position. This has led some fans feeling they are treated as customers, consumers or punters. But playing behind closed doors has provided an opportunity to understand the performance impact that supporters can have. If clubs start to share and evolve this performance message it will engage fans who want to feel part of the club, make them feel valued and give them a very real stake in on-pitch success.
Fans have been missed by clubs across the world. The financial implications of lost revenue is a very real issue for many. As stadia are allowed to open once again, clubs have the chance to show how much they value their supporters. Not just as punters but as part of the performance team, or as part of the matchday squad as the 12th man. Managers and coaches often say, once the players have crossed the white line, there isn’t much more they can do. For fans, this isn’t true. They can be the difference, providing a real performance advantage. And in professional sport you take every advantage you can get.
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