As restrictions associated with the Covid-19 pandemic ease further in the UK, football fans will once again be allowed into stadiums for the final few games of the season. The new regulations, announced by the government, will see only home fans allowed to attend and limits of up to either 25% capacity of the stadium or 10,000 people, whichever is the smaller.
Up to 10,000 home fans will be able to attend the final few games of the 2020/2021 season
Much was made of the impact that empty stadia would have on players, with numerous theories presented to explain the potential for both improved and deteriorated performances. These ranged from benefits due to reduced pressure from the removal of an expectant crowd to an inability to find that ‘edge’ associated with the atmosphere players were used to.
A wide-ranging study looking at 23 professional leagues across 17 countries during the behind closed doors 2019/2020 season, backed previous research examining the importance of a crowd. The findings concluded that it is not the psychological impact on players, but the referees who are most influenced by crowds (Bryson et al 2020).
A deeper analysis of the data from an earlier study by Goumas’ 2014 also shows that a relationship exists between crowd density (dividing crowd size by stadium capacity) and the unconscious bias of referees. When stadia were at less than 25% capacity, no bias was detected but as crowd density increased to 50% and then up towards 100% capacity away team bookings increased by 13% and 35% respectively.
At the elite level of the game, it might only take a few minor decisions going in favour of the home team to have a material impact on the outcome. If away team players have received, or feel they are more likely to receive, a booking it could temper their play and produce decreased effort in certain situations, allowing their opposition to capitalise on these opportunities.
For the 9 Premier League clubs with stadium capacities above 40,000 thus an attendance limit of 10,000 fans, the research suggests this will not constitute the sort of crowd density needed to have a positive performance impact. The news gets worse at Old Trafford, The Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, The Emirates Stadium and The London Stadium. With capacities of 60,000 or above, the four biggest club grounds in England will be limited to 16.6% capacity or less. Again, not close to the predicted crowd density needed to influence the officials and therefore gain a performance advantage.
Trying to maximise the number of fans inside the grounds has always been a priority for clubs, but often from a financial position. Recent events surrounding the European Super League have only heightened some fans feelings’ that they are treated as customers, consumers or punters. But playing behind closed doors has provided an opportunity to understand the performance impact that supporters can have. If clubs start to share and evolve this performance message it will engage fans who want to feel part of the club, make them feel valued and give them a very real stake in on-pitch success.
Fans have been missed by clubs across the world. The financial implications of lost revenue remain a very real issue for many. However, as stadia are allowed to open once again, clubs have the chance to show how much they value their supporters. Not just as punters but as part of the performance team, or as part of the matchday squad as the 12th man. Managers and coaches often say, once the players have crossed the white line, there isn’t much more they can do. For fans, this isn’t true. They can be the difference, providing a real performance advantage. And in professional sport you take every advantage you can get. The data suggests these final few games won’t see fans in the sort of numbers capable of influencing performance. However, these first steps to getting fans back in significant numbers is a positive step. Let hope that next season, the performance advantage of a full home crowd is back to its partisan best…
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